A speculative analysis of socio-economic influences on the fertility transition in China.

A broad range of causes related to institutional and socioeconomic development are examined in terms of their influence on fertility transition in China. The question is raised as to whether a uniform government population policy sufficiently accounts for the urban and rural differences in fertility and declines which preceded policy. Significant changes which may be determinants of fertility decline are discussed as: the 1) the emancipation of women, 2) the socialization of agriculture and industry, 3) social security and other welfare benefits, 4) public health care, 5) the expansion of education, 6) changes in female labor force participation, 5) the rise in urban residence, and 8) the "sending down" campaigns. As a result of these changes, people have become aware of choices and aspire to nontraditional life styles. These socioeconomic changes have been gradual and strenuous, and have given women a new decision-making power in forming their families. A new relationship exists between the individual and society. Children as a course of labor in family enterprises is no longer possible with the elimination of the private sector. Economic uncertainties have been minimized since 1949 so that children are no longer valued as risk aversion. A minimum income is guaranteed. Savings and institutionalized pension and insurance programs have brought security to many Chinese families, and children are no longer crucial to the support of parents in the traditional Chinese family. These changes removed the impetus for high fertility. The feudal marriage system no longer constrains women; educational levels are rising. Changes in rural areas occur rapidly with advances in electrification and road construction. There are alternatives to childbearing. It is the interaction of these dynamic factors and the accumulative process that provided the context for reproductive change, and hence fertility decline. The 1970s was a period of both intense family planning and socioeconomic development, and reflects not only the transition of society in the 1970s but also the cumulative changes of the 1950s and 60s. It is concluded that family has been influential, but direct and indirect socioeconomic changes are also determinants of fertility decline. There is no Western counterpart. The socioeconomic forces are not unique to China.